With Monday’s loss at Portland, the Rockets (16-53) clinched the NBA’s worst record, along with the associated draft lottery odds. However, with the 2020-21 season now in its final days, many variables remain that could influence Houston’s eventual first-round draft picks.
The teams to focus on are Miami (38-31), Portland (40-29) and Milwaukee (44-25). As of now, the Heat would be at the No. 18, No. 19 or No. 20 slot in the first round (depending on a random draw), while the Trail Blazers would be at No. 22 or No. 23 and the Bucks at No. 24.
Why are these three teams important to watch? Here’s a refresher:
Milwaukee: Houston owns its 2021 first-round draft pick.
Portland: Houston owns its 2021 first-round draft pick, lottery protected.
Miami: If Houston does not land in the draft lottery’s top four (a 47.9% chance), Oklahoma City will swap Miami’s first-round selection for that of the Rockets
Once the regular season concludes on Sunday, May 16, any ties in the draft order will be broken by random draw. The usual tiebreakers for playoff seeding, such as head-to-head records, will not factor in.
With Milwaukee and Miami, the calculus for Houston fans is simple. The lower those teams are in the standings, the better for the Rockets. Right now, the Bucks are only a game behind Denver and Brooklyn. The Heat are less than two games (in either direction) of Golden State, Atlanta, New York and the Los Angeles Lakers.
In Tuesday’s results, Miami and Milwaukee moved the wrong direction (for Houston’s interest) with wins over Boston and Orlando, respectively. A loss by Dallas also brought Portland into a tie with the Mavs.
Closing schedules:
Heat: vs. 76ers, at Bucks, at Pistons.
Hawks: vs. Wizards, vs. Magic, vs. Rockets.
Knicks: vs. Spurs, vs. Hornets, vs. Celtics. https://t.co/8k63KUdcFU— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) May 12, 2021
With Portland, the calculus is slightly more complicated. Right now, the Trail Blazers are tied for No. 5 in the Western Conference standings, which would ensure they qualify for the playoffs. However, they are only one game ahead of the defending NBA champion Lakers, who are at No. 7.
Hypothetically, if the Lakers jumped Portland, the Blazers would have to win a game in the West play-in tournament to qualify for the playoffs. If they do not, their draft pick obligation to the Rockets rolls over to 2022.
That makes it a risk-reward balance, in terms of rooting interests for Houston fans. If Portland falls to No. 7, their 2021 pick moves slightly higher in the order, relative to being at No. 5 or No. 6. However, that also brings in some risk of the pick not conveying at all this year, thanks to the play-in tournament. So, in terms of who to cheer for, it depends in part on how much of that risk each person is willing to accept.
For Wednesday’s games, here’s our preferences for each pick:
Miami: Cheer for Hawks over Wizards
Why: Atlanta and Miami are currently tied in the standings.
Milwaukee: Cheer for Nets over Spurs
Why: Brooklyn is only one game up on Milwaukee.
Portland: Cheer for Jazz over Blazers, Mavs over Pelicans, and Lakers over Rockets
Why: It’s understandable if you can’t do the third part of the trifecta, but these are the ideal results, mathematically, for moving Portland down in the draft order. The Trail Blazers are tied with the Mavericks and one game up on the Lakers.
We’ll post a new version of this guide each day during the final week of the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season. Stay tuned!