The NBA’s addition of a play-in tournament not only adds an intriguing element to this season but also conjures thoughts of what might have been for the Miami Heat had it previously been in place.
While the NBA has yet to stage its first true play-in, the concept already feels like unqualified success.
The approach not only adds the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds in each conference into the potential postseason mix, but also enhances an additional level of competition.
Get one of the Top 6 seeds in each conference and you advance directly to the best-of-seven first round, just as had been the case in the past. A No. 6 seed has never meant more, as the Heat jockey for such position.
Finish Nos. 7-10 and it takes at least one more victory to advance.
For teams normally finished at this stage of the season, there remains hope. For teams weighing lottery luck, there now is the best of all worlds, with teams that lose in the play-in round still qualifying for the random-but-weighted lottery.
The play-in format is simple: At the conclusion of the regular season, the No. 7 seed hosts the No. 8 seed in the first play-in game. The winner of that game gets the No. 7 seed, to face the No. 2 seed. Then the No. 9 team hosts the No. 10 team in a single-elimination game. The losing team is out and the winner plays at the loser of the No. 7-8 game for the No. 8 seed, to face the No. 1 seed.
Unlike last season’s last-chance play-in approach at the Disney bubble, there is no requirement of being within a certain number of games of No. 8 to qualify for the play-in.
What it means is that a team in the middle of the seeding process no longer can afford to maneuver for a specific first-round matchup, because of the risk of having to instead deal with the play-in round.
There still, as always, is the chance of the system being gamed. For example, is it worth it for a team to win the final play-in game only to face likely defeat, if not humiliation, against a No. 1 seed, as opposed to at least having a shot in the lottery? That could lead to a single-game tank.
As for the potential suddenness of being out of the playoff picture after a single play-in loss, is it any different than the one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament or Major League Baseball’s wild-card game or, for that matter, any NFL playoff game?
Who knows, it could be a round that provides validation for the Chicago Bulls’ acquisition of Nikola Vucevic or of the Sacramento Kings’ perseverance through an uneven season. Heck, it eventually even could produce the most New York Knicks type of seasons . . . postseason games and, still, lottery.
So how might it have impacted the Heat in recent years? A look at their three most recent lottery seasons:
— 2019: The Heat finished No. 10 in 2018-19, winding up with Tyler Herro as the No. 13 pick in the lottery.
Had the play-in setup been in effect, the Heat would have played at the Charlotte Hornets in the No. 9-No. 10 game, and with a victory then would have faced the loser of the No. 7 Orlando Magic-No. 8 Detroit Pistons game for the No. 8 seed and the right to play the Milwaukee in the first round.
Remember, that was Dwyane Wade’s final season, which could have made the extra games particularly compelling, with Wade’s final game producing a triple-double in Brooklyn.
— 2017: This was the season the Heat went from 11-30 over the first half to 30-11 over the second, only to lose a tiebreaker to Wade’s Chicago Bulls (still sounds odd) for the No. 8 playoff seed.
Under the current play-in format, the 41-41 Heat would have hosted the 37-45 Pistons in the No. 9-No. 10 game, and with a win then faced the loser of the No. 7-No. 8 game that the Indiana Pacers would have hosted against the Bulls.
That very well could have set up a Heat vs. Wade game for the right to face the top-seeded Boston Celtics in the first round.
The Heat instead wound up with Bam Adebayo at No. 14 in the lottery as consolation prize. With a playoff berth, there is a chance Adebayo could have been off the board.
— 2015: At 37-45, the Heat finished No. 10 in the East, one game out of the No. 8 seed.
Under the play-in format, the Heat would have played a single-elimination game on the road at the No. 9 Indiana Pacers, with that winner playing for the No. 8 seed against the loser of the No. 7 Boston Celtics and No. 8 Brooklyn Nets.
That was the year the Heat tanked their final game of the regular season in Philadelphia in order to secure the No. 10 lottery seed, with their first-round pick protected in a previous trade only through the first 10 selections.
The result was the drafting of Justise Winslow at No. 10. Had the play-in been in effect, the Heat would have had to weigh pushing for a playoff seed against the top-seeded 60-22 Atlanta Hawks or protecting their lottery interests.
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